On Nov. 25, 2025 Mayor Muriel E. Bowser announced she will not run for a fourth mayoral term, saying she had “accomplished what we set out to accomplish” and would serve through January 2027. The decision ends a decade in office and immediately turns the 2026 mayoral cycle into an open, highly visible contest in a national capital under intense federal scrutiny. ^[5]

Bowser framed her tenure around big development wins and service changes — notably a $3.7 billion public‑private project to bring the Washington Commanders back to the RFK campus and major investments in housing and homeless‑services reform — while defending a pragmatic relationship with an often‑adversarial federal administration. ^[6]

Congress inserted the District into a wider fiscal fight in March 2025 by moving language that effectively forced D.C. to revert to FY2024 spending levels — a gap of roughly $1.1 billion — before the Senate moved a fix. Senators subsequently advanced the District of Columbia Local Funds Act (S.1077) to restore the FY2025 local budget; that bill was introduced March 14, 2025 and is available on Congress.gov. The budget tug‑of‑war illustrates how federal appropriations power can be used as leverage over local policy. ^[7]

August 2025 saw an extraordinary assertion of federal authority: the administration invoked emergency powers under the District of Columbia Home Rule Act (commonly discussed around “§740”) to place aspects of MPD operations under federal control and deploy National Guard and federal agents in the city. That action triggered lawsuits from D.C. officials and spurred congressional proposals to repeal or constrain the President’s §740 authority (bills have been introduced in both chambers to strip the power). The legal and legislative aftermath is still playing out. ^[8]

Baseline public opinion matters. A Washington Post–Schar School poll from May 2025 found Bowser’s approval at roughly 53% (53% approve; 41% disapprove; margin of error ±4.6 points). That rebound from mid‑decade lows matters because it means the incoming field will not necessarily be running against a deeply unpopular incumbent narrative — they will be competing to define “Bowser’s legacy” rather than simply attacking her record. ^[11]

But the same survey showed D.C. voters are highly concerned about federal overreach: ~77% said they were worried about threats by the President or Congress to intrude on the District’s autonomy. That concern powers both statehood advocacy and local electoral messaging. ^[12]

Bowser’s decision immediately lifted the lid on possible successors. Early names in media coverage and local reporting include Councilmember Janeese Lewis George (Ward 4), who would run from the progressive left, and Councilmember Kenyan McDuffie (I‑At‑Large), who is generally viewed as more business‑friendly and law‑and‑order oriented. Both have publicly signaled interest or are widely reported as testing the waters; more entrants are likely (including council veterans and community leaders). ^[13]

Election mechanics: the next general mayoral election is scheduled for Nov. 3, 2026; primaries (and D.C.’s recently adopted electoral reforms such as ranked‑choice rules, where applicable) will shape whether the general is a runoff of top two or a consensus field. An open seat in the nation’s capital draws national attention and outside spending; expect both local coalition politics (housing, policing, economic development) and national frames (home rule vs. federal control) to be central. ^[14]

Open‑seat mayoral contests in D.C. are rare and consequential: Bowser’s decade encompassed post‑pandemic recovery, a spike then drop in violent crime, major development deals, and renewed national attention on home rule. The combination of an incumbent exit plus an ongoing federal‑local constitutional standoff (budget, policing authority, litigation) turns a municipal contest into a national center of gravity for debates about urban governance and statehood. ^[17]

Comparative note: while cities often see frequent turnovers, D.C.’s unique constitutional status (Congressional oversight, Home Rule Act constraints) means mayoral leadership interacts directly with national legislative and executive levers — making the race a proxy for larger battles over autonomy, spending, and federal supervision. The §740 episode and the S.1077 budget fix are recent, concrete examples. ^[18]

Summary — what to watch and why it matters:

• Adherence tips: Candidates who craft clear, ward‑level plans on housing, policing, and budget resilience will succeed in making the race about competence rather than purely symbolic fights over federal power. Keep an eye on coalition maps (unions, developer interests, tenant groups). ^[33]
• Red flags: Any candidate who assumes federal support (or invincibility) without a clear local‑policy platform risks alienating voters worried about autonomy; conversely, an all‑out confrontation strategy with federal actors could trigger budget or legal consequences. Recent history shows both extremes carry costs. ^[34]
• Next steps: Watch candidate rollouts (expected early 2026), the D.C. Board of Elections calendar, court filings on federal control, and congressional appropriations scheduling. Those four timelines will determine policy capacity and the political argument for the next mayor. ^[35]